findingthetroublehorse.com

The System's Foundation.....
My system is predicated (foundationally) on the simple mathematics principle of 'Mean Reversion'. The official definition of Mean Reversion is as follows: Mean Reversion is the theory suggesting that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average. This mean or average can be the historical average of the price or return or another relevant average such as the growth in the economy or the average return of an industry. But, in our case, we're using speed ratings as our baseline numeral.

Example: We'll say a mythical horse has run the following five speed ratings: (78, 67, 88, 91 & 68) - If we add up the first three numbers (78+67+88), we'll arrive at a Last-3 'Mean' of (77.6), or, an estimated (78). So, was this horse's next out (91) even plausible? Answer: NO!

Caveat: + = minus and - = plus, in the world of Mean Reversion.

78 <<<<< 67 = (-11)...... 67>>>>>>88 = (+21)...... Overall, the horse was a (+10) going into that 4th start. Or, A (-10) should have been deducted from said horse's 3rd start (88), or, a (78) becomes its projection - the same number as its 3-race Mean! Scary, huh?!

​Now we've established that the (91) was indeed an anomaly; forecasting the potential for a 'Bounce' becomes child's play!

67 >>>>>>> 88 = (+21)..... 88 >>>> 91 = (+3) = (+24).......
Deduct 24 from 91(its last start), and you'll arrive at (67) - and a mere point from perfection!!!